In 2007, the Philippine economy turned in its best performance in over thirty years with its low inflation rate, low interest rates and a strong Philippine peso, whereas in 2008 there were already indications at the start of the year that it would be otherwise, and that proved to be true. Skyrocketing oil prices to record levels, high inflation rate and particularly, the global financial crisis which did not spare the Philippines all contributed to this turnover in the performance of the economy.

In 2008, the annual inflation rate averaged at 9.3%, it’s highest since 1998. The average was 6.5 per cent points higher than the previous year’s 2.8%. Early in the year, it soared to its highest level in fifteen months, a 7-year high of 12.5% in August but subsequently eased to 8.0 % in December, the lowest since April of that year, as food and energy prices started to decline.

The Peso ended 2008 at P47.52 versus the U.S. dollar, P6.24 weaker than the previous year, which had closed at a strong P41.18. Dropping 15.4% this year, the poor performance of the peso almost eroded the 19% gain posted in 2007.

The economy grew at its slowest pace in seven years as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to 4.6% from a three-decade high of 7.2% in 2007. Likewise in 2007, foreign portfolio investments jumped by 35% reaching $3.5B by the end of the year, but by the middle of the year, investors started to pull out their funds resulting in a net outflow in portfolio investment of over $410M.

At the local stock market, after five years of continuous growth, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed drastically on the negative side. Plunging 48.29% at the end of 2008 to 1,872.85 from 3,621.60 at the end of 2007, the market experienced massive sell offs by both local and foreign investors on negative news of the U.S. economic crisis. These troubles also affected virtually all the stock markets in the world.

 

The only positive news was the performance of oil prices. The year opened with oil prices above $100 per barrel (equivalent to P44.45 per liter of unleaded gas in the Philippines) and soared in the first semester hitting an all-time high above $147.00 per barrel in July (P60.46 per liter). However, the global economic downturn slashed world demand for energy and pulled prices sharply lower resulting in oil prices falling at the end of 2008 to below $40 a barrel (P34.96 per liter), its lowest level in nearly four years.

Worldwide, there was already an economic slowdown in 2007 amidst tightening credit conditions that were brought about by the crisis in the sub-prime mortgage market sector in the United States. This reached its peak in mid-2008 with the collapse of several financial giants like Lehman Brothers, and the government bailout of AIG and automotive companies. This fallout from the U.S. financial crisis swiftly spread globally by the latter part of 2008 and as the crisis deepened, many countries, in particular the United States, Japan, Great Britain, France and Germany fell into recession. Although the Philippines was not spared by said crisis, it remained structurally and fundamentally sound as we were better prepared to meet the challenge.

In light of the above, notwithstanding these external volatilities, the bank’s financial conditions remained strong. Total resources of the bank decreased slightly by 1.3% to P953.9M, as against P966.2M at year-end 2007. Deposits dipped to P324.3M, a drop of 4.1% against the previous year’s P338.5M. Our loan portfolio rose significantly to P125.4M from P89.5M, an increase of P35.8M, while our investment in Government Securities experienced an even bigger increase of 84.8%, to P266.1M from P144.0M in 2007. Understandably, our investment in interbank loans dropped by 26.9%, from P594.3M to P434.4M, as we shifted funds to other higher-yielding outlets.

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